Matthew Schaefer Young Guns: 2025-26 Upper Deck Series 2 Rookie Card Guide

Matthew Schaefer's Young Guns is the most expensive base hockey rookie card in years, and a lot of people searching for it are looking in the wrong box. His Young Guns is card #451 in 2025-26 Upper Deck Series 2, not Series 1. Series 1 shipped in the fall of 2025 with Young Guns numbered 201 to 250, and Schaefer was not in it; Upper Deck held him for Series 2, which released March 4, 2026. This guide covers the card, the parallels, the odds, what it sells for as of October 18, 2026, and how to buy it without overpaying.

The season behind the card

Schaefer was the first overall pick in the 2025 draft and signed an exclusive deal with Upper Deck before the draft, so every licensed card of him is a UD card. As an 18-year-old defenseman he scored 23 goals and 59 points for the Islanders, tying Brian Leetch's record for goals by a rookie defenseman and setting the mark for goals by an 18-year-old defenseman. He won the Calder Trophy unanimously with all 198 first-place votes, per the AP's May 13, 2026 report. That is the context for why a base Young Guns is trading in the hundreds.

2025-26 Upper Deck Series 2: how the Young Guns fall

Per Beckett's Series 2 checklist and the Upper Deck sell sheet:

• Hobby box: 12 packs, 12 cards per pack, 12 boxes per case. Base Young Guns fall one per two packs, so six per hobby box. The Young Guns subset is 50 cards (#451 to #500).
• Retail: blasters (4 packs) carry one Young Guns per box; tins (8 packs) carry three.
• Schaefer's cards: Young Guns #451. He also shares #499 (Schaefer/Gatcomb) and the #500 Young Guns checklist card with Michael Misa, plus a long list of inserts: 1994-95 Rookie Die-Cuts RTD-13, Dazzlers DZ-57, Encore E-149, Fluorescence F-26, Incarnations INC-5, OPC Glossy OG-28, Population Count PC-37, Rookie Class Commemorations RC-21, Slaps SL-13, UD Portraits P-32 and a UD Canvas Program of Excellence Team Canada card C-259.

Young Guns parallels and odds

• Outburst Silver: 1:60 hobby packs (unnumbered, about one per five boxes)
• Clear Cut (acetate): 1:144 hobby packs, hobby exclusive, roughly one per case
• Deluxe: numbered /250
• Exclusives: /100
• Outburst Red: /25
• High Gloss: /10
• Outburst Gold: 1/1
• UD Canvas Young Guns: 1:24 hobby packs, with Black and White (1:216) and printing plate 1/1 versions

French-back Young Guns variants exist in some retail products in prior years; Beckett's Series 2 checklist does not list them for this release, so treat any "French" Schaefer YG with caution until you have seen the back.

What it sells for (as of Oct 18, 2026)

Prices below are eBay sold listings tracked by SportsCardsPro, checked October 18, 2026.

• Base Young Guns #451, raw: $140 to $192 in the week of October 16-17, 2026, with the market price around $160. Volume is roughly one sale a day, so this is a liquid card.
• PSA 9: $190 to $231 in mid-October. The gap between raw and a 9 is small, which tells you the market assumes a raw copy is a 9 unless shown otherwise.
• PSA 10: $786 to $890 between October 9 and 16, 2026, market price about $850. GameStop's graded marketplace had PSA 10 copies listed at $854 for comparison.
• Outburst Silver #451, raw: $660 to $980 from September into October, market price around $720. PSA 9s have sold between $850 and $1,050; PSA 10 sales are rare enough that SportsCardsPro lists an estimate (about $2,770) rather than a comp, so do not treat that figure as a price.

For a sense of where this started: Greater Long Island reported some early listings running above $1,000 in March 2026 when Series 2 first hit, before supply caught up. The market then settled into the range above and has held it through the summer and into the fall, which for a base Young Guns is unusual. Compare it with the Connor Bedard Young Guns from 2023-24, which went through a similar peak-then-settle, and the pattern is familiar: the first month is the worst time to buy.

PSA 10 vs raw: the math

Raw is about $160, a PSA 9 about $210 and a PSA 10 about $850. That is a five-to-one spread between a 10 and raw, which makes grading tempting. The problem is that Upper Deck base stock from Series 2 is prone to edge chipping and off-center cuts, and a Young Guns that comes back a 9 has gained you roughly $50 before fees. If you are buying a raw copy to grade, buy from clear scans and pay attention to the top and bottom borders. If you simply want the card in a holder, a PSA 9 at $200 is the value play; the 10 is a different asset with a different buyer.

Where the value is for different budgets

• Under $200: a raw base Young Guns, bought from sold-comp pricing, not from the "Buy It Now" column.
• $200 to $300: a PSA 9 base, or a raw Young Guns plus a UD Canvas Young Guns.
• $700 to $1,000: a PSA 10 base or a raw Outburst Silver. The Outburst Silver has more upside because it is unnumbered but genuinely scarce (about one per five hobby boxes), and most of them were not pulled by people who grade.
• Above that: Exclusives /100, Outburst Red /25 and High Gloss /10 trade by negotiation, and the comps are thin. Check 130point and recent eBay solds for the specific serial numbers rather than relying on asking prices.

What to avoid

• "Series 1" listings. There is no Series 1 Schaefer Young Guns. Listings that say Series 1 are either mislabeled or not a Young Guns at all.
• Extended Series confusion. 2025-26 Upper Deck Extended Series has an Acetate Young Guns #451 and a UD Canvas #C-365 of Schaefer. Those are different cards from the Series 2 Young Guns and should be priced separately.
• Rookie Debut and SP Authentic cards sold as "the Young Guns." SP Authentic Future Icons /399 and SP Rookie Authentics are real Schaefer rookie-year cards and some have autographs, but the Young Guns is the card the hockey market keys on. Do not pay a Young Guns premium for a different set.
• Buying in the first week of a new series. The same card will almost always be cheaper 60 days later.

Sources: Beckett's 2025-26 Upper Deck Series 2 Hockey checklist, Sports Collectors Daily (March 3, 2026), Cardlines' Series 2 Young Guns guide (March 3, 2026), Greater Long Island (March 14, 2026), the AP's Calder Trophy report (May 13, 2026), SportsCardsPro eBay sold-listing tracking and GameStop's graded listings, all checked October 18, 2026.

Where to buy

We carry 2025-26 Upper Deck Series 2 hobby boxes and tins while supply lasts and list Schaefer singles from our breaks in the NHL collection. The full Upper Deck lineup, including Series 1, Extended and SP Authentic, is in the Upper Deck collection.